What I think is more likely is moving populations such that Sunnis all live south of Baghdad, Shia north, and the Kurds stay put. They’ll eventually split up into three separate countries, at which point your Turkey point comes true and all-out war ensues there. I would ordinarily call that one for the Turks, but apparently the Kurds have been building up an army of their own. They may be a formidable force by the time fighting with Turkey is required.

And then there’s the third way, which is that the Kurds turn not against the Turks but against the Shia and Arab Sunnis. In this instance, the Arabs become second class citizens to the Kurds in a new Kurdish controlled Iraq. The Kurds will run a civilized area where they’re native, and will slowly cleanse the southern provinces of Iraq of violent elements.

Regardless, it will be interesting to watch it play out. Unfortunately, we’re in a holding pattern until Bush leaves office. Everyone seems to understand that, which is why there’s no political solution forthcoming in Iraq at the present time. Look for the ground to shift quickly once the election is over next November.